Prop Firm Challenge Success Rate Calculator

What win rate do I need to pass a prop firm challenge?

With a 1:1 R:R ratio you need above 50% win rate to be profitable. With a 1.5 R:R ratio, you only need around 40% win rate to have a positive expected value. However, passing a challenge also depends on not hitting drawdown limits, which requires risk management discipline on top of your edge.

What does expected value per trade mean?

Expected value (EV) per trade is your average profit or loss per trade expressed as a multiple of your risk. EV = (Win Rate × Avg Reward) - (Loss Rate × 1). A positive EV means your strategy is profitable on average. A negative EV means you will lose money over time regardless of variance.

How long should a prop firm challenge take to complete?

Most prop firms require a minimum number of trading days (typically 4-10 days) and a maximum of 30-60 calendar days. With a healthy EV and 2-5 trades per day, most traders who have a genuine edge should be able to complete a challenge within 10-20 trading days. Rushing increases the risk of breaching drawdown limits.

What is the maximum losing streak I should prepare for?

At a 50% win rate, a streak of 7 consecutive losses has roughly a 1% probability on any given sequence. At 40% win rate, streaks of 8-10 losses are realistic. Your daily drawdown limit must be large enough to survive your expected worst-case streak - this calculator shows you exactly how many losing trades you can absorb per day.