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Prop Firm Monte Carlo Simulator
Run 500 simulations of your trading strategy against a prop firm challenge. See your real pass probability, P&L distribution and risk of ruin before you pay a single challenge fee.
Win rate (%)
Reward-to-risk ratio
Risk per trade (% of account)
Total trades in challenge
Profit target (%)
Drawdown rules (optional)
Daily drawdown limit (%)
Max drawdown limit (%)
Trades per day (for daily reset)
FAQs — Monte Carlo Simulator
Simulating pass probability, variance and risk of ruin before you buy a challenge.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation in trading?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs your trading strategy hundreds or thousands of times using random outcomes weighted by your win rate and R:R. Because markets are random, the same strategy can produce very different results across different sequences of trades. Running 500 simulations shows you the full range of possible outcomes - not just the average.
Why might my strategy pass some simulations but fail others?
Even a profitable strategy with positive expected value can fail a prop firm challenge due to an unlucky sequence of losses hitting your drawdown limit before you reach the profit target. The Monte Carlo simulator shows you exactly how often this happens at your specific risk level and drawdown rules.
What pass probability should I aim for before buying a challenge?
We recommend aiming for at least 60-70% pass probability before buying a challenge. Below 50% means you are statistically expected to fail more challenges than you pass, which means you will likely spend more in fees than you earn in payouts over time. Adjust your risk per trade or R:R to improve your odds.
How can I improve my Monte Carlo pass probability?
The most effective ways to improve pass probability are: reduce risk per trade (smaller position sizes survive longer losing streaks), improve R:R ratio (taking larger winners relative to losers), increase win rate (refine your entry criteria), and choose a firm with a more generous daily drawdown limit relative to your risk per trade.
What do the daily and max drawdown rules actually do in the simulation?
When set, the simulator resets your daily loss floor after the number of trades you specify per day, and tracks a separate hard floor for max drawdown from your starting balance. A trade that would breach either floor ends that simulation as a fail, even if your overall equity curve still looks healthy - this is what catches strategies that look fine on average but blow through daily limits.
What's the difference between the median and the percentile outcomes shown?
The median (50th percentile) is the middle outcome across all simulations - half performed better, half worse. The 5th and 95th percentiles show your realistic worst-case and best-case range. A wide gap between the 5th and 95th percentile means your results are highly variance-dependent, even if the median and pass probability look good.
Should I trust a single Monte Carlo result, or run it multiple times?
Each run uses a fresh set of 500 random simulations, so results will shift slightly each time you click run. Small shifts (a percentage point or two) are normal noise. If you see wildly different pass probabilities between runs, it usually means your inputs are placing you right on the edge between passing and failing - worth tightening your risk per trade for a safer margin.
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FAQs — Prop Trading Questions Answered
Answers on prop firms, funded accounts, challenges and how our platform works
What is Prop Firm Pal?
Prop Firm Pal is a comparison and review platform for proprietary trading firms. We list popular prop firms, publish detailed descriptions, collect real trader reviews, and provide verified discount codes for challenges and funded accounts. Our goal is to help traders compare prop firms, save money with promo codes, and choose the best funded trading program for their needs.
How does Prop Firm Pal work?
Prop Firm Pal allows traders to browse a curated list of proprietary trading firms, read in-depth information about each firm, and view real user reviews. When you find a prop firm you like, you can click the discount code button to copy the promo code and visit the firm’s website through our link. If you complete a purchase, you receive the advertised discount and we may earn a commission from the prop firm at no additional cost to you.
What is a proprietary trading firm (prop firm)?
A proprietary trading firm, also known as a prop firm, is a company that provides traders with access to funded trading accounts. Instead of risking your own capital, you trade the firm’s funds and earn a share of the profits. Most prop firms require traders to pass an evaluation or challenge that tests consistency, risk management, and profitability before granting a funded account.
How do prop firm challenges work?
Prop firm challenges are evaluation programs where traders must meet specific profit targets while following strict risk management rules. These rules often include maximum daily drawdown, overall drawdown limits, minimum trading days, and consistency requirements. If you successfully complete the challenge and any verification phase, you can qualify for a funded trading account and receive a profit split.
How do I use a prop firm discount code on Prop Firm Pal?
To use a prop firm discount code on Prop Firm Pal, go to the prop firm’s profile page and click the discount button. The promo code will automatically copy to your clipboard and you will be redirected to the official prop firm website. At checkout, paste the code into the coupon or promo field to apply the discount to your challenge or funded account purchase.
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