Prop Firm Monte Carlo Simulator

What is a Monte Carlo simulation in trading?

A Monte Carlo simulation runs your trading strategy hundreds or thousands of times using random outcomes weighted by your win rate and R:R. Because markets are random, the same strategy can produce very different results across different sequences of trades. Running 500 simulations shows you the full range of possible outcomes - not just the average.

Why might my strategy pass some simulations but fail others?

Even a profitable strategy with positive expected value can fail a prop firm challenge due to an unlucky sequence of losses hitting your drawdown limit before you reach the profit target. The Monte Carlo simulator shows you exactly how often this happens at your specific risk level and drawdown rules.

What pass probability should I aim for before buying a challenge?

We recommend aiming for at least 60-70% pass probability before buying a challenge. Below 50% means you are statistically expected to fail more challenges than you pass, which means you will likely spend more in fees than you earn in payouts over time. Adjust your risk per trade or R:R to improve your odds.

How can I improve my Monte Carlo pass probability?

The most effective ways to improve pass probability are: reduce risk per trade (smaller position sizes survive longer losing streaks), improve R:R ratio (taking larger winners relative to losers), increase win rate (refine your entry criteria), and choose a firm with a more generous daily drawdown limit relative to your risk per trade.