Prop Firm Monte Carlo Simulator

A Monte Carlo simulation runs your trading strategy hundreds or thousands of times using random outcomes weighted by your win rate and R:R. Because markets are random, the same strategy can produce very different results across different sequences of trades. Running 500 simulations shows you the full range of possible outcomes - not just the average.

Even a profitable strategy with positive expected value can fail a prop firm challenge due to an unlucky sequence of losses hitting your drawdown limit before you reach the profit target. The Monte Carlo simulator shows you exactly how often this happens at your specific risk level and drawdown rules.

We recommend aiming for at least 60-70% pass probability before buying a challenge. Below 50% means you are statistically expected to fail more challenges than you pass, which means you will likely spend more in fees than you earn in payouts over time. Adjust your risk per trade or R:R to improve your odds.

The most effective ways to improve pass probability are: reduce risk per trade (smaller position sizes survive longer losing streaks), improve R:R ratio (taking larger winners relative to losers), increase win rate (refine your entry criteria), and choose a firm with a more generous daily drawdown limit relative to your risk per trade.

When set, the simulator resets your daily loss floor after the number of trades you specify per day, and tracks a separate hard floor for max drawdown from your starting balance. A trade that would breach either floor ends that simulation as a fail, even if your overall equity curve still looks healthy - this is what catches strategies that look fine on average but blow through daily limits.

The median (50th percentile) is the middle outcome across all simulations - half performed better, half worse. The 5th and 95th percentiles show your realistic worst-case and best-case range. A wide gap between the 5th and 95th percentile means your results are highly variance-dependent, even if the median and pass probability look good.

Each run uses a fresh set of 500 random simulations, so results will shift slightly each time you click run. Small shifts (a percentage point or two) are normal noise. If you see wildly different pass probabilities between runs, it usually means your inputs are placing you right on the edge between passing and failing - worth tightening your risk per trade for a safer margin.